Grautik raised its EU-28 wheat production forecast slightly to 141 million tonnes, with gains in south-east and eastern states offset by cuts in Germany, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Spain and the UK. Barley was estimated at 58.2 million tonnes and maize at 58.9 million tonnes, with rain in Germany and quality concerns for brewing barley in Poland and the Baltics.
A near-record EU wheat and maize crop keeps European feed grain supplies ample, which tends to cap import demand and weigh on feed grain prices, while quality issues for brewing barley could support higher-quality feed barley prices.
After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.