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Chinese stocks rallied and the yuan strengthened on December 3, 2018, after Xi and Trump agreed to hold off new tariffs at the G20. The White House said both sides would negotiate for 90 days, with tariffs rising from 10% to 25% if no deal is reached, and that China would buy substantial US goods.
The deferred tariff increase on $200 billion of Chinese imports and the pledged Chinese purchases support US soybean and grain export demand.
caixinglobal.comLiu JiefeiDec 3, 2018After 696 past bullish trade events, SOY moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 729 past bullish trade events, CORN moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.8%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The tariff delay and China's pledge to buy US goods reinforced the risk-on trade sentiment that supported grain futures.
It confirms the Xi-Trump tariff delay and Chinese pledges to buy US goods on Dec 3, the catalyst behind the risk-on move, but it covers Chinese equities and the yuan rather than corn.
