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October natural gas futures rose after the EIA reported a 91 Bcf storage injection, about 6 Bcf above consensus. The market reacted unexpectedly by rising to new highs despite the larger-than-expected build.
A bigger-than-expected injection is normally bearish, but the price response shows the market was already pricing in a tight balance, leaving the net effect unclear.
After 40 past neutral report events, NATGAS moved a median +1.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -3.5% to +2.8%), and +4.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.