
USDA's Meat Price Outlook says Choice-or-better beef carcass output is at historic highs, up 4.4% year on year. Pork cutout prices corrected lower, and supplies are expected to keep rising above last year.
Heavy beef and pork supplies point to softer cutout values and pressure on cattle and hog prices, while strong beef output may narrow the Choice/Select spread.
After 144 past bearish report events, Live Cattle moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.1% to +0.9%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 159 past bearish report events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.