The latest USDA report showed higher Russian wheat supplies and lower Australian estimates, with global end-season wheat stocks at 263 million tonnes. French wheat production was raised to just under 38 million tonnes, and UK crop estimates range from 14.5 to 15 million tonnes.
Ample global stocks and a large Russian and French supply weigh on wheat prices, and the UK market remains range bound with limited exportable surplus.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.