The USDA report showed abundant wheat supplies, with higher global ending stocks despite lower output in Canada, Argentina and Australia. France's winter soft wheat area for 2020 is forecast to fall 4.8% to a 17-year low, and Coceral raised its EU 2019 production estimate to 145 million tonnes.
Large global wheat supplies and rising EU and Russian exportable surpluses keep competition intense and cap prices, while the lower French area is a partial offset for 2020.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.