
The IFCN Dairy Research Network says a new milk price cycle could begin early next year with a downward trend. USDA lowered its 2018 all-milk price projection by 15 cents to a $17.90 midpoint, and California has mailed ballots on a stand-alone quota system.
A forecast downturn in milk prices signals softer dairy returns ahead, which can lower dairy producer spending on feed. The USDA cut confirms weaker price expectations for 2018.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.