
Rabobank's Q4 2017 Pork Quarterly expects global pork supply to rise, led by China, the US, Canada and Brazil. Chinese pork imports fell 27% in the first eight months of 2017 and may rebound in Q4, while Chinese prices are expected to keep trending lower.
US pork belly prices have reached record levels on foodservice demand.
A sharp fall in Chinese imports creates a risk of oversupply in global pork markets, pressuring hog prices. Expected Chinese import recovery would offer some support.
After 159 past bearish report events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.