USDA's Economic Research Service projects fourth-quarter US pork production at a record above 7 billion pounds, up 3.5 percent from a year earlier. Strong domestic and export demand is keeping pork inventories current, and the stocks-to-production ratio is projected to fall to its lowest since 1990.
Record production is offset by strong demand, but heavy supplies keep fourth-quarter hog prices forecast about 9 percent below last year. This supports lower hog prices despite tight ending stocks.
After 159 past bearish report events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.