
India's 91 main reservoirs held 103.43 billion cubic metres on September 28, 13% below the 10-year average and 66% of capacity versus 74% a year earlier. The monsoon was below normal, with 17% of the country receiving insufficient rain.
Rabi crops including wheat, pulses and mustard are at risk and may be sown on a smaller area.
Lower reservoir levels reduce irrigation for the winter wheat crop and raise the risk of smaller output and higher domestic prices. Speculative buying could amplify the move.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.