USDA's July WASDE report showed higher U.S. corn supplies and ending stocks with unchanged corn yields, and lower domestic soybean production with unchanged yields. Third-highest cotton abandonment on record reflected drought damage in the U.S. South and Plains.
Prices still fell double digits, with September corn down 34 cents and August soybeans down 50 cents.
Higher corn supplies point to cheaper feed corn, while the smaller soybean crop supports soybean meal prices if drought persists. Markets are watching hot, dry weather forecasts for further yield risk.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.