
OPEC+ is meeting to decide whether to proceed with a planned 400,000 bpd output increase or hold off due to Omicron uncertainty. Oil had its largest daily drop since March 2020 on Friday, and the US and other countries are tapping strategic reserves to cool prices.
Uncertainty over Omicron-driven demand and possible OPEC+ output changes will drive crude price direction, which feeds into energy and biofuel costs for feed. Holding output flat would support prices, while proceeding with the increase would add bearish pressure.
After 60 past neutral geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -4.7% to +2.3%), and -1.9% over 20.
After 63 past neutral geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -4.4% to +2.6%), and -2.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.