
USDA's November WASDE raised 2017-18 corn production to 14.58 billion bushels on a record 175.4 bu/acre yield, versus 14.28 billion in October. Soybean production was trimmed to 4.425 billion bushels, and domestic corn ending stocks rose to 2.49 billion bushels, above pre-report expectations.
A record corn yield and stocks above trade estimates add substantial bearish pressure to corn prices, while the small soybean cut leaves that market largely unchanged.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.