
USDA's August WASDE put the US corn yield at 175.4 bu/acre and production at 14.359 billion bushels, about 24 million bushels below trade expectations. Soybean estimates changed little, and traders expect final yields to fall further amid hot, dry Plains weather.
Traders expect lower final yields than USDA's estimate, which supports corn prices and tightens the feed grain outlook.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.