
USDA's April WASDE projected a record Brazilian soybean crop of 115 million metric tons and cut Argentine corn output from 36 to 33 million tons on drought. Argentine soybean production was pegged at 40 million tons, below analyst expectations, while U.S. soybean ending stocks were trimmed 5 million bushels to 550 million.
Lower South American corn and soybean supplies tighten world balances, supporting corn and soybean prices, though Brazil's record soybean crop caps the upside. Wheat faces bearish pressure from the stocks outlook.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.