
EPA finalized 2018 Renewable Fuel Standard volumes largely unchanged from its July proposal, keeping biomass-based diesel at 2.1 billion gallons for 2019 despite industry requests for 2.5 billion. Cellulosic volumes were raised, and corn ethanol blending was set at 15 billion gallons for 2018.
Corn ethanol demand is held at 15 billion gallons, supporting corn grind, while flat biodiesel volumes cap soybean oil demand. Overall the outcome is roughly neutral to slightly bearish for soyoil.
After 439 past neutral policy events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.2%), and +1.1% over 20.
After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.