
CRU Group analyst Gowin Joe told a Tehran nitrogen conference that Iran could become the world's largest urea exporter by 2022. He said China's urea exports will fall to about 4.5 million tonnes a year as Chinese curbs take hold, while Iran and Russia expand capacity.
A forecast shift of export leadership from China to Iran and Russia is a longer-term structural factor for urea supply, with limited immediate price impact.
After 23 past neutral trade events, Urea moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.0%), and +2.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.