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US granular urea ended 2017 at about $260/st fob New Orleans, a one-year high and a $100/st rise over the second half. Unexpected Chinese supply shortages and renewed Indian buying drove the gain ahead of the 2018 spring season.
New US urea capacity, including Koch's 900,000 st/yr plant, is expected to add supply in early 2018.
China's cut in urea exports and idled gas-based plants remove an estimated 500,000-600,000t from the global market, supporting prices. Whether that tightness lasts into 2018 will largely decide whether US urea keeps rising despite new domestic capacity.
argusmedia.comDec 26, 2017After 176 past bullish trade events, Urea moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.4%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
