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USDA data showed US beef cattle slaughter down about 4% year over year in early 2023, with beef cow numbers down 3.6% and the 2022 calf crop the smallest since 2015. The forecast projects 2023 slaughter and beef production down 4.25% to 4.75%.
Equatorial Pacific temperatures have moved to neutral, with rising odds of El Niño by late 2023.
A shrinking herd and fewer replacement heifers keep cattle supplies tight, supporting prices. Emerging El Niño raises the risk of pasture and crop weather stress later in the year.
terrainag.comDave WeaberApr 27, 2023After 80 past bullish weather events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -0.8% to +1.3%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 79 past bullish weather events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +1.4% over 20.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
