Has The ECB Lost Control Of The Euro Exchange Rate Complex?

After 359 past neutral macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -0.4% to +0.4%), and -0.1% over 20.

• Feb 11, 2018ECB concerned about U.S. political influence on exchange rates: Nowotny-1.1%
• Mar 27, 2017Goldman Sachs: Weak British Pound Means Weaker Consumer, BoE Looks Through Inflation | Exchange Rates UK+0.1%
• Jan 28, 2019Brexit Pound Analysis: British Pound Has Rallied 5% Vs Euro, Dollar But How Much Has GBP Discounted A No Deal Brexit? | Exchange Rates UK-0.2%
• Dec 10, 2023Last US FOMC of the Year in Focus... Impact on Exchange Rates and Korean Monetary Policy - The Asia Business Daily-0.8%
• Mar 15, 2017Will A Fed Rate Hike Boost The Price Of Oil? | Investing.com-1.5%

After 388 past bullish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +0.1% over 20.

• Oct 29, 2021Euro US Dollar Exchange Rate Jumps On ECB Rate Decision And US GDP-1.2%
• Feb 5, 2026ECB warns of stronger euro impact, holds rates+0.7%
• Mar 2, 2020Euro Exchange Rate Reaches 5-Week-Best As Rivals Pound Sterling And Dollar See Large Losses | Exchange Rates UK+2.9%
• Jul 24, 2026ECB holds rates steady: Why is the Euro rising?+1.3%
• Jan 30, 2017Euro Exchange Rates Trade Higher Vs Pound, Dollar After Navarro Comments Dent USD+1.0%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.