ECB’s Sisyphean task: To credibly talk down the euro

After 388 past bullish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +0.1% over 20.

• Aug 30, 2017The ECB can do little to stop the euro’s rise | articles | ING THINK-0.7%
• Jul 14, 2023FX Talking July: The dollar’s break point | reports | ING THINK-0.5%
• Apr 28, 2020EUR & ECB crib sheet | articles | ING THINK+0.8%
• Dec 8, 2020EUR and ECB Crib Sheet | articles | ING THINK+0.1%
• Mar 20, 2018Euro Rally Could "Extend in Coming Days" - Analysts React to Reports of Shift in ECB Interest Rate Policy+0.9%

After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.

• Jun 17, 2019FX Talking: The beginning of the end of the dollar’s rally | reports | ING THINK-0.9%
• Jul 14, 2023FX Talking July: The dollar’s break point | reports | ING THINK+0.4%
• Mar 23, 2020FX Talking: I need a dollar | reports | ING THINK-2.0%
• Mar 20, 2018Euro Rally Could "Extend in Coming Days" - Analysts React to Reports of Shift in ECB Interest Rate Policy-0.9%
• Dec 15, 2023FX Daily: European pushback supports local currencies | articles | ING THINK-0.2%