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ING analysts said the dollar has been the only winner in the crisis and that policymakers are in fire-fighting mode. They expect the dollar to give back recent gains into the summer as Washington faces pressure over dollar strength.
Prolonged lockdowns are seen causing deep recessions.
A forecast of dollar weakness later in 2020 would support dollar-priced commodities over the medium term. Near-term risk remains tied to demand shocks from lockdowns.
think.ing.comChris Turner, Francesco PesoleMar 23, 2020After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
