European fertilizer prices are rising, with KAS at about €24 per 100 kg, up from €21.95 in November 2017. Nitrogen is the main driver, with the 2017 average up 10% from 2016.
China, the main exporter, reportedly shipped 11 million tonnes less nitrogen after stricter environmental rules curbed coal-fired plants.
Reduced Chinese nitrogen exports tighten global urea supply, pushing up nitrogen fertilizer costs and ultimately the cost of producing feed grains.
After 129 past bullish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.3%), and +1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.