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Nomura analysts say the dollar extended its rebound in the week after Fed Chair Powell's congressional testimony. They note that yield differentials have lost explanatory power for the dollar, while the 2s5s curve slope correlates better.
The research team says FX markets are focusing on hikes further out the curve.
A firmer dollar tends to pressure dollar-priced commodities, though the weaker link to yields makes the currency signal less predictable for feed markets. Traders may watch curve shape as a guide to dollar direction.
octaafrica.netMar 2, 2018After 2,356 past bullish macro events, DXY moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
