The seventh NAFTA modernization round was held in Mexico City from February 25 to March 4, with negotiators closing the good regulatory practices chapter and finishing the SPS measures chapter. Talks may continue informally.
US Grains Council staff noted new uncertainty from proposed US steel and aluminum tariffs affecting Mexico and Canada.
Progress on NAFTA lowers the risk of disruption to US grain exports to Mexico, but tariff uncertainty keeps a risk premium on trade flows. The net price effect is small for now.
After 480 past neutral trade events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 250 past neutral trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.