CCM says China's fertilizer output in 2017 fell to a nine-year low of 61.84 million tonnes, as environmental inspections and capacity cuts removed outmoded plants. Phosphate producers are expected to curb output in 2018, and raw material costs may rise.
Expected Chinese phosphate output curbs and rising raw material costs point to tighter global phosphate supply and firmer DAP and TSP prices.
After 151 past bullish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.9%), and +1.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.