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India's government raised fertilizer subsidies on phosphorus and sulphur by 27% and 20%. The subsidy on DAP rose the most, by Rs1,465/MT (+16% year on year), while the MOP subsidy fell by Rs763/MT.
A larger DAP subsidy supports Indian DAP demand and producer margins, which tends to firm phosphate prices. The lower potash subsidy may weigh on MOP economics.
After 151 past bullish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.9%), and +1.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.