
The ECB account reviews financial market developments since January, including a rise in real long-term US yields and higher US break-even inflation. It also notes equity market pressure from higher discount rates and concern over trade relations.
Rising US real yields and inflation expectations support the dollar and can weigh on dollar-denominated commodity prices, while trade concerns add downside risk for export-oriented sectors.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.