US retail gasoline is nearing $3 a gallon for the first time since 2014, and retail diesel has reached its highest level since January 2015. The rise is attributed to a long US winter and anticipated demand for ultra-low sulfur diesel ahead of the IMO 0.5% sulfur shipping rule in January 2020.
Higher diesel costs raise freight and fuel expenses across feed supply chains, and expected IMO-driven demand for low-sulfur fuel points to sustained distillate strength.
After 105 past bullish macro events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.4% to +1.8%), and +1.2% over 20.
After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.