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Chris Hurt estimates 2018 US pork production costs will rise about $4 per cwt (6%), driven by feed. Decatur high-protein soybean meal could average about $365 per ton in 2018, up 16%, due to yield-reducing dryness in Argentina, while corn is forecast near $3.65 per bushel, up 9%.
Higher meal and corn costs squeeze hog margins toward breakeven and support soybean meal and corn prices, with Argentine dryness a key supply risk for world meal.
farmprogress.comApr 2, 2018After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 10 past bearish weather events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (20% higher; middle half -2.7% to -0.2%), and -4.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
