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A Rabo AgriFinance analyst says that if China enforced a 25% tariff on US soybeans, soybean prices would fall while meal values could rise. He cites Argentine drought reducing crush and Argentina importing US beans.
Xi Jinping's recent comments on trade were also noted.
A tariff-driven split between beans and meal would shift crush economics and could lift meal prices given tight Argentine supply.
brownfieldagnews.comMark DorenkampApr 12, 2018After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 342 past bullish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.1% to +2.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
