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Profercy analysts say renewed US sanctions on Iran add obstacles but are unlikely to significantly change Iranian urea trade flows. India has taken about 700,000t of Iranian urea in two 2018 tenders, and China has become a key destination with 250,000t imported since December 2017.
Iranian urea volumes are expected to keep flowing mainly to India and China, so global urea supply and prices are likely to be little changed by the sanctions.
profercy.comChris YearsleyMay 15, 2018After 11 past neutral geopolitics events, UREA moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (64% higher; middle half -1.0% to +5.9%), and +7.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
