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Aliko Dangote opened a 3-million-tonne fertilizer plant in Nigeria costing $2.5 billion, aimed at African and foreign markets. The opening came as the war in Ukraine pushed up natural gas prices, a key input for urea, and disrupted shipping.
The new capacity adds future urea supply, but near-term costs stay high because gas prices remain elevated, so buyers face firm nitrogen prices.
After 11 past neutral geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (64% higher; middle half -1.0% to +5.9%), and +7.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.