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Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Alexis Maxwell outlines three factors that could lower fertilizer prices: Chinese export policy changes, a Russia-Ukraine peace settlement, and freer trade. Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian chemical plants are also cutting production.
Fertilizer costs feed into livestock and grain production margins, and the outlook depends heavily on Chinese export decisions and Russian supply, keeping price direction uncertain.
dtnpf.comKatie Micik DehlingerOct 1, 2026After 11 past neutral geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (64% higher; middle half -1.0% to +5.9%), and +7.8% over 20.
After 126 past geopolitics events, DAP moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.2%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
