
ICRA reports that rupee depreciation and rising gas costs will push India's urea subsidy shortfall to about Rs 9,000 crore this fiscal year. The government's FY19 urea subsidy bill is projected at around Rs 54,000 crore against a Rs 45,000 crore budget allocation.
Higher import costs and a larger subsidy need point to stronger Indian urea import demand and firmer global urea prices, with knock-on effects on fertilizer costs for grain and feed producers.
After 92 past bullish macro events, Urea moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.0% to +3.6%), and +4.8% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.