Platts reports that T2 ethanol margins in the Netherlands fell to negative $48 per metric ton, the lowest in three years. European wheat prices rose to $208/mt on dry weather that raises concern about the coming harvest.
Corn-based ethanol margins were around negative $21 per ton.
Dry weather threatening the European wheat harvest supports wheat prices and feed-grain alternatives. Negative crush margins may reduce European ethanol output and co-product supply.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.