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Sanjay Kaul argues in an opinion piece that India's frequent shifts in agricultural trade policy, including import duties, minimum export prices and export bans, have created instability. He says distorted minimum support prices have pushed domestic prices away from international levels and eroded export competitiveness.
Abrupt policy reversals make Indian export and import flows hard to predict, which can keep world rice and wheat prices volatile. Buyers should expect continued uncertainty in Indian grain trade.
thehindubusinessline.comSanjay KaulMay 29, 2018After 100 past neutral policy events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -2.6% to +2.3%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 137 past neutral policy events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
