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India is struggling to liquidate surplus wheat and sugar stocks and is considering domestic consumption, biofuel diversion and exports. The government will distribute free wheat rations to 80 crore families in May and June.
Free rations cut domestic wheat stock levels, while export or biofuel options could add supply to world markets; the net effect on global prices is uncertain.
After 137 past neutral policy events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.