
Oil prices are at a three-and-a-half-year high, yet the Canadian dollar stays near 75 US cents. Analysts point to the Federal Reserve rate outlook, oil sands production issues and tariff threats as reasons the loonie is weak despite higher crude.
The disconnect shows currency and rate drivers currently outweigh the usual oil link, keeping Canadian import costs high for feed buyers.
After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.