◂ Event Timeline

Jun 20, 2018MACROGlobal

ECB frets about trade war cost behind 'facade of optimism': sources

Sources say the ECB is concerned that trade war costs are hidden behind a facade of optimism in the euro zone economy. The article notes that German exports drive much recent growth and that weaker southern economies cannot afford a stronger euro.

WHY IT MATTERS

Concern about trade-war damage to euro zone demand could reduce European import demand for feed and oilseeds over time, a mildly bearish factor.

AFFECTSEuro (USD per EUR)◆

SOURCE
reuters.comBalazs KoranyiJun 20, 2018

Price reaction & history

Euro (USD per EUR)◆neutralSO FAR1d +0.1%5d +0.8%20d +0.6%

After 129 past neutral macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -0.5% to +0.5%), and +0.1% over 20.

Sep 12, 2024ECB dents traders' hopes for October rate cut+0.9%
Apr 19, 2024Will worries about the euro stop the ECB from cutting? | Capital Economics+0.6%
May 15, 2024Watch: Why a rate-cutting ECB won’t be too worried about the euro | ING THINK+0.3%
Sep 11, 2025Traders raise bets that the ECB is done cutting rates | Reuters+1.1%
Apr 30, 2026Traders temper euro zone rate hike bets as ECB grapples with Iran war impact | MarketScreener+0.5%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

Euro (USD per EUR) EURUSD · GP ▸

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