◂ Event Timeline

Sep 11, 2025MACROEuro Zone

Traders raise bets that the ECB is done cutting rates

The European Central Bank kept its key deposit rate on hold at 2% for a second straight meeting. Christine Lagarde said the bank remains in a good place and that risks to the economy have become more balanced.

WHY IT MATTERS

An ECB pause that signals the end of the easing cycle tends to support the euro against the dollar, which can affect the dollar-denominated value of imported feed ingredients.

AFFECTSEURUSD◆

SOURCE
reuters.comYoruk Bahceli, Sara Rossi, Alun JohnSep 11, 2025

Price reaction & history

EURUSD◆neutralSO FAR1d +0.2%5d +1.1%20d -0.9%

After 129 past neutral macro events, EURUSD moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -0.5% to +0.5%), and +0.1% over 20.

Oct 26, 2022ECB raises interest rates again, cuts bank subsidies | Reuters-0.9%
Sep 12, 2024ECB dents traders' hopes for October rate cut+0.9%
May 15, 2024Watch: Why a rate-cutting ECB won’t be too worried about the euro | ING THINK+0.3%
Oct 26, 2023ECB snaps rate-hike streak, pushes back on talk of cuts | Reuters-0.4%
Feb 26, 2018The one interest rate differential that is driving the US dollar | ING THINK+0.1%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

EURUSD · GP ▸

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