◂ Event Timeline

Apr 19, 2024MACROEurozone

Will worries about the euro stop the ECB from cutting?

Capital Economics argues that exchange rate moves have only a small effect on euro-zone inflation. It concludes that a large currency move would be needed to change the pace of ECB rate cuts.

WHY IT MATTERS

The analysis implies the ECB is unlikely to be forced off its easing path by euro weakness, so currency-driven feed cost increases are likely to be limited.

AFFECTSEuro (USD per EUR)◆

SOURCE
capitaleconomics.comJack Allen-ReynoldsApr 19, 2024

Price reaction & history

Euro (USD per EUR)◆neutralSO FAR1d -0.0%5d +0.6%20d +2.0%

After 129 past neutral macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -0.5% to +0.5%), and +0.1% over 20.

May 15, 2024Watch: Why a rate-cutting ECB won’t be too worried about the euro | ING THINK+0.3%
Sep 8, 2020ECB will struggle to rein in the euro, say investors+0.5%
Sep 22, 2025ECB can still frustrate euro surge with 'contingency cut': Mike Dolan — TradingView News-0.5%
Dec 12, 2019EUR & ECB: The funding characteristic of the euro still intact | articles | ING THINK+0.2%
Dec 10, 2024Euro-dollar has hit the floor, but don't expect a bounce | Oxford Economics-0.5%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

Euro (USD per EUR) EURUSD · GP ▸

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