
Rabobank's Q3 poultry results forecast Brazil's poultry exports to fall 10% and production 3% after the EU delisted 20 Brazilian plants over salmonella concerns. It also cites China's safeguard measures and expected trade disruption from US-China tariffs.
A smaller Brazilian poultry sector cuts meat supply and lowers domestic feed demand in Brazil, while potential soybean sourcing shifts toward Brazil could support Brazilian soy prices.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 12 past bullish disease events, Soybeans moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -1.6% to +0.1%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.