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U.S. hard red winter export cash prices rose about 73 cents since January, with futures climbing from $4.37 to $5.64 per bushel by May 25. Drought in the HRW growing area and poor crop conditions abroad are cited as drivers, while historically high U.S. rail rates support export basis.
Drought-reduced HRW supply and expected Black Sea shortfalls keep wheat export prices firm, raising feed grain costs. High rail rates add to the cost of moving grain to export positions.
hpj.comHPJ StaffJun 6, 2018After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
