
New crop wheat prices were volatile after a USDA global forecast cut Russia's wheat crop to 68.5 million tonnes due to a wet spring. Global 2018-19 wheat production was lowered 3.1 million tonnes to 744.7 million, with EU and Australian estimates also reduced.
Prices then fell back amid US-China trade concerns.
A sharp cut to Russian and global wheat output tightens export supplies and supports wheat prices, though trade worries capped the rally.
After 769 past bullish report events, WHEAT moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.