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The international urea market has been nervous as future trade depends on whether India can keep buying Iranian urea after US sanctions are re-imposed. Traders say India buys about 1.6m tonnes of urea from Iran annually and is struggling to resolve payment issues without antagonising the US.
If India cannot buy Iranian urea, it would turn to other origins at higher prices, a major bullish shock for global urea; if a payment solution is found, prices could ease as the market sees no current demand.
vinachem.com.vnJul 17, 2018After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
