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USDEC warned that closure of the Strait of Hormuz near Iran would curtail US dairy shipments to the Middle East, especially cheese and butter. The Iran conflict has also pushed urea prices to about $702/ton from $470 before the conflict.
About one-third of the world's fertilizer passes through the Strait.
Export disruption to a key cheese and butter buyer region would weigh on US dairy prices and demand. Higher urea costs raise crop input expenses and could tighten corn and feed grain supply economics.
hoards.comHoard', s Dairyman staffApr 3, 2026After 414 past bearish events of any kind, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.7% to +0.5%), and -1.5% over 20.
After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
