GAPKI data show Indonesia's total oil exports, including biodiesel and oleochemicals, fell 3% to 2.33 million tons in May 2018 from April. Crude palm oil exports fell 4% to 2.14 million tons, as Indian imports dropped 31% after India raised its palm oil import tariff to 44%.
Lost Indian volumes after the tariff increase add to palm oil supply that must find other buyers, which pressures prices. Diversifying to markets such as Africa would be needed to offset the loss.
After 158 past bearish trade events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.8%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.