
State media reported that COFCO says China can replace U.S. soybean imports with supplies from South American countries. China bought 32.9 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans in 2017, which was 34% of its total purchases.
Confidence that China can substitute Brazilian and Argentine beans reduces the long-run demand premium for U.S. soybeans, which is bearish for U.S. soybean prices and supportive for South American origin flows.
After 803 past bearish trade events, SOY moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 224 past neutral trade events, SBM moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.2%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.