Wood Mackenzie says China was the second-largest buyer of US LNG in the 12 months to June 2018, but Chinese purchases have fallen as the trade dispute escalated. China's retaliatory tariff on US LNG is 10%, lower than the 25% first proposed in August.
Winter cargo purchases are largely complete, so the short-term market impact is seen as limited.
Lost Chinese demand for US LNG could weigh on US export economics and new project contracting. Chinese buyers may pay a premium of up to 10% for non-US supply if they still need spot cargoes.
After 24 past bearish trade events, NATGAS moved a median +2.8% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -4.5% to +7.3%), and -1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.